Category Archives: Probability

What does “95% likely” mean?

The latest IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report says that it is “95% likely” that the main cause of global warming in the last 50 years is human activity. That sounds like it’s a probability, just as when you read … Continue reading

Posted in Behavioral Economics, Probability, Subjective Probability | Leave a comment

The next in our “new paradigm for economics and behavioral economics” series

Joe Jeffrey and I worked for over a year on a follow-up to our paper “The Irrationality Illusion” (which was published just yesterday in the Journal of Behavioral finance!) The working title was “The Problem With Probabilities”; in a fit … Continue reading

Posted in Behavioral Economics, Economics, New Paradigm, new paradigm for economics and behavioral economics, Probability, Subjective Probability | Leave a comment